Bronco Production Numbers

ChiliPepper

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I'm working on a database for BR monthly production and sales numbers, May 2022 to present. Note that 'sales' are Ford U.S. sales numbers and do not include secondary sales or 'flippers'.

In the meantime, I unabashedly copied these Bronco "family" charts from Mark over at Bronco6G. The family is all 10 trim models assembled at the Ford MAP (Basic, Big Bend, Black Diamond, Outer Banks, Badlands, Wildtrak, Everglades, Raptor, Heritage, Heritage Limited); the early numbers would also include First Edition. The data do not include Bronco Sport.

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JohnGalt

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View attachment 6480

I'm working on a database for BR monthly production and sales numbers, May 2022 to present. Note that 'sales' are Ford sales numbers and do not include secondary sales or 'flippers'.

In the meantime, I unabashedly copied these Bronco "family" charts from Mark over at Bronco6G. The family is all 10 trim models assembled at the Ford MAP (Basic, Big Bend, Black Diamond, Outer Banks, Badlands, Wildtrak, Everglades, Raptor, Heritage, Heritage Limited); the early numbers would also include First Edition. The data do not include Bronco Sport.

View attachment 6482 View attachment 6481
Are you counting Canada and Mexico sales (by Ford) too? They publish those quarterly
 
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ChiliPepper

ChiliPepper

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Are you counting Canada and Mexico sales (by Ford) too? They publish those quarterly
True story.
I'm more interested in production than in sales. I will have to delay my response until I verify Mark's numbers with my 3rd Ford source. Foreign sales and US sales should equal total sales, which I believe is illustrated in the chart. I'll verify and get back to you.

My numbers will be for BRs, which are all produced in Wayne then shipped or exported accordingly.
 
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JohnGalt

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True story.
I'm more interested in production than in sales. I will have to delay my response until I verify Mark's numbers with my 3rd Ford source. Foreign sales and US sales should equal total sales, which I believe is illustrated in the chart. I'll verify and get back to you.

My numbers will be for BRs, which are all produced in Wayne then shipped or exported accordingly.
Just saw Feb numbers in 6g, the figures in the chart are US sales. Ya, production is simpler.

I used to follow this last year. If you took production (US only of course), less sales (US, CA &MX) and stock, there were always a bunch (seriously a lot!) of broncos missing Back then. I always surmised those were chip holds (produced vs. built) but could never prove it.

I look forward to any insights you derive
 
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ChiliPepper

ChiliPepper

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Just saw Feb numbers in 6g, the figures in the chart are US sales. Ya, production is simpler.

I used to follow this last year. If you took production (US only of course), less sales (US, CA &MX) and stock, there were always a bunch (seriously a lot!) of broncos missing Back then. I always surmised those were chip holds (produced vs. built) but could never prove it.

I look forward to any insights you derive
Sales are a lagging indicator, by 30-60 days.

12.9k units is slightly above the 2022 monthly average. I heard somewhere (maybe FA) that Ford was cutting back on Rangers in order to alleviate the Bronco backlog but I don't see that in the numbers (yet).

I need to fill in some data holes and verify a few numbers before any BR production numbers are tossed out.

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ChiliPepper

ChiliPepper

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1680889066109.png
 
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ChiliPepper

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Finally, some estimated numbers for the BRaptor.

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ChiliPepper

ChiliPepper

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April 2023 production numbers are down from March; however, the CY23 CUM is tracking to last year's CUM. The key word in Ford MAP is assembly. Limited parts = limited assembly

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ChiliPepper

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Screenshot 2023-06-03 064254.jpg
Screenshot 2023-06-03 064608.jpg
 
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ChiliPepper

ChiliPepper

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Ford reports that supply constraints are easing (for some issues) but may still be a long-term concern. No word on whether or not there will be a July shutdown like last year. This late in the game the answer is likely no.

[Edit: corrected errors found in 2021 and 2022 data]

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ChiliPepper

ChiliPepper

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Aside from the 4dr hardtop constraint, it appears Ford is getting it's supply line in order . . . slowly.

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Current economic conditions (inflation, high MSRP, cost of financing, etc.) may have curbed demand slightly. Total US order banks are 12,595. Technically, this is only a 25-day backlog at full capacity and no constraints. Linear logic would imply that a new order placed today would be delivered in about 12 weeks (depending on options and distance from the MAP). That also implies that a new order would get scheduled quickly.

To date (CY21-23), Ford has produced only about 230k Broncos (all trim levels); signifcantly less than other popular Ford models. The number one product line is, of course, the F-150.

It will be interesting to see the July production numbers next week.
 

stumpm2

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Has there been any numbers published for the 2022 and 2023 Bronco Raptor production?
 
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ChiliPepper

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Boy Howdy, 2.5 months is frustrating. And I thought waiting 2 weeks to ship was nailbiting.

Back in DEC 2022, my Wyoming friend's Bronco had been sitting for a month. Insult to injury after waiting 22 months to get scheduled. I offered to do a little investigation for him. It turned out that Ford, or more accurately CSX, could not get auto railcars returned to its Wayne yard; hence, the transportation backlog. The more the delay, the more the backlog and the longer to flush the system. Similar to the ocean freight issues at the LA port, but on a smaller scale. My friend eventually received his Bronco the end of January.

I'm not aware of what the current transportation issues might be. Hopefully, the logjam will break soon and you'll get your BR.

1690392752386.png

Google Maps is not live imagery, but if you zoom in on the CSX Wayne terminal you can see a lot of Broncos and Rangers waiting to ship.
 

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EDIT: I deleted this post below prior to @ChiliPepper 's response above. I thought his post is about production and not shipping, so I didn't want to change the topic.

Interesting. That is great news. Shipping is still an issue it seems. Shipping can be a major issue for some companies. My Raptor has been sitting at Ford produced for two and a half months. Hopefully it will ship one day soon. No actually shipping date. Two shipping windows have come and gone and a seat belt no sale hold. We shall see.

I used to own a trucking company so I know how hard it is to move product at times and to ramp up shipping with production. We actually did some car hauling at one point. Those drivers are specialized and hard to find. It takes a very specific person who wants to do that kind of work. A lot of drivers these days want "no touch" loads. A good car hauler is worth his weight in gold. I'm hoping for a good one.
 

Roughstock

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Again, interesting. Yes thanks, hopefully soon.
Boy Howdy, 2.5 months is frustrating. And I thought waiting 2 weeks to ship was nailbiting.

Back in DEC 2022, my Wyoming friend's Bronco had been sitting for a month. Insult to injury after waiting 22 months to get scheduled. I offered to do a little investigation for him. It turned out that Ford, or more accurately CSX, could not get auto railcars returned to its Wayne yard; hence, the transportation backlog. The more the delay, the more the backlog and the longer to flush the system. Similar to the ocean freight issues at the LA port, but on a smaller scale. My friend eventually received his Bronco the end of January.

I'm not aware of what the current transportation issues might be. Hopefully, the logjam will break soon and you'll get your BR.

View attachment 9102
Google Maps is not live imagery, but if you zoom in on the CSX Wayne terminal you can see a lot of Broncos and Rangers waiting to ship.
n
 
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ChiliPepper

ChiliPepper

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July was a pretty light production month; less than 9k vehicles for the MAP due to the Ranger switch over from MY23 to MY24. Note that 2023 BR order banks closed back on 14-APR and regular Bronco order banks are closing 10-AUG. I received a letter from Ford last week still using the supply chain excuse. See weekly constraint letter below.

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Still getting letters from Ford even though I cancelled this order back in December.

Backorders (US order banks, USOB) have increased slightly since last week. Interestingly, Ford is only scheduling 30-60 days out. It used to be 60-90 days in 2022.

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ChiliPepper

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If I hear a lot of excuses without a plan for improvement, then it is a red flag. 🚩 Remember, most analysts consider the macroeconomic conditions when coming up with their expectations. Don’t let a company blame factors it can’t control for more than one quarter. Ford has been using the supply chain excuse for over 5 quarters. Where is the plan for improvement? And don't give me any covid or pLandemic BS. πŸ’© Nobody uses the Flu as an excuse and it happens every year with greater impact. No Ford stock in my portfolio.
- end of soapbox -
 
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ChiliPepper

ChiliPepper

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Backlog is increasing. Could be a function of a flurry of 23MY orders prior to the closing of Bronco order banks today.

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ChiliPepper

ChiliPepper

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Backlog decreased slightly with the closing of Bronco order banks on 10-AUG. MY24 order banks opened this week on 16-AUG. Even though BRs are manually scheduled, the two constraints that limit a BR COVP/DORA getting scheduled are hardtops and the LUX package. These are standard commodities on BRs; however, 91.2% of USOB want 4dr hardtops, which means 24.2% of the orders are going to sit or, if they are scheduled, they are at risk for getting pushed to the right. Enjoy another 🍺 while you wait.

1692390283764.png 1692391862907.png

While production of all Bronco trim levels follows a linear model, CY23 BR production is a 2nd order polynomial, which indicates a lower BR production rate for Q3-Q4CY23.

As seen from the 14-AUG backlog, regular Broncos only account for 77% of MAP capacity leaving 23% capacity for high demand Heritage, Limited Heritage and Raptor trim levels. Or does it go to the Ranger line? :unsure: Full capacity assumes no commodity constraints. It is not known what the USOB is for Limited Heritage and Raptor trim levels.

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